tv U.S. Farm Report ABC November 14, 2015 5:00am-6:00am CST
from he. stock up on orange juice-- we'll tell you why one disease is taking a bigger bite out of orange production that expected. keeping avian flu at bay... this is basically the birthplace of commercial operations so it's kind of one of the oldest areas.> we're off to the east coast where beefing up biosecurity is one producers' defense against the deadly disease. and in john's world... time to go video a video with animal welfare people> now for the market related news, usda's latest crop report sent bearish reactions rippling through the commodity markets this week as the agency raised a few key numbers more than expected. usda
from last year. the biggest cut is to florida's numbers, where the state continues to battle the devestating disease called citrus greening. the most pessimistic long-term scenario comes from a study by the florida department of citrus questioning whether the industry can survive. their forecast shows prpruction will hit 7474million boxes next year, but worried that number could fall to 27 million by 2026. usda's report this week sent orange juice futures skyrocketing to the highest point in 16 months, with a 16 dollar incrase just this week. it was the opposite reaction in the livestock markets with usda's report triggering limit down moves. usda says beef production is expected to climb nearly 5 percent in 2016...to 24 point 91 billion pounds. that news pushing live cattle futures fo december to fresh lows--- down to 128 per hundrededtuesday...before seeing a rebound wednesday. meanwhile, the latest sterling profit tracker shows cattle feeding markgins getting even tighter,
with feedyard managers starting at lososs in excess of 486 dollars per head. turning our attention to south america, planting conditions are improving. recent rains even ending a very serious s at wave in brazil. usda meteorolgistst mark brusberg says el nino usually means good news for south american farmers.
storm coming across the country this week. we'll how that to you coming up, in the meantime drought monitor continues to show the worst areas as has been the case, all growing season out west. california, nevada, the worst areas. it's actually improved slightlin washington and oregon. and you're going to improve a little as we head ththugh this week but moderate drought only spotty across the middle of the country. alright let's go day by day as we start the week on monday, it's looking like a wet area already really through the missouri valley starting in texas all the way up into missouri, southeastern iowa. storm system kind of double barrel here coming in. this is going to be the main pocket of energy snow on the northside of that especially higher elevation. rain all the way down southward into southern california at least some areas. and then you can see some scattered showers and storms herwise. kind of cool in the east but high pressure giving you a decent day. by wedsenday it really comes to together a big wrappedup storm system over the middle of the country.
great tales area. showers and storms elsewhere. rain showers behind it. next system coming in out west with some rain and mountain snows. and by friday, then, the first system is stalled out along the southeastern coast from the mid-atlantic into the florida panhandle. and the second system producing some pretty decent snows it looks like from minnesota down into parts s the northern plains. back in our next half hour with a longer range outlook. thanks, mike. in honor of veterans day this week, we have two veterans on the marketing roundtable with us this week. brian splitt and craig vandyke are in to talk markets after the break.
mentioned it was veteran's day this week, so on the round table we have the marine corps and the army represented. brian split of allendale, craig vandyke of top third. before we jump into the markets, give us just a brief background. >> sure, tyne. so i was in the united states marine corps from 1999 to 2004, aater survival instructor, and spent some time in iraq during the initial invasion in 2003. >> and, craig? >> u.s. . my from 2006 to 2012. i served with the 82nd airborne in 6 spent 2009 in tal afar, iraq. >> well, thank you both for your service. now, we'll jump into the markets. usda report this week when they raised yields, carryover, a bit of it seemed a bit of a shock, definitely a bearish tone-- a bearish reaction. craig, where do we go from here? >> well, the market's
not a huge incentive to see some bibuying to spur us higher a this point. ultimately, with the numbers we had this week out of the usda, i expect to see a continued sideways choppy trade with small opportunies here and there. the carryouts look big in s sbeans. the demand is not there in corn and the wheat number continues to grow and grow. now, this is the third consecutive year of record wheat crop, recordrdheat carryout, so ultimately for us to see a big boost in the near term, i think, is going to be a battle. >> brian, to see that soybean yield raised an entire bushel. i mean, percentage-wise that's a big increase. >> right. there was really in the past 20 years only four years where we had more than 2% increase in the yield, and so with a 2.3% increase this year i think that's just really indicative that the late soybeans that we had some concerns about really turned out to be very, very good producing beans. >> so can we just expect, craig, with the next usda report
that these yields will continue to get bigger and the carryout may continue to get bigger as well? >> well, historically the usda does tend to raise yields as we move forward into january, so i would expect that to continue to grow. as far ahow much, i doubt that we'll see as big a jump as we saw, like brian said, in the soybean yields moving into january, but, yes. big crops get bigger, and that continues to be the storyline in the yield reports that we've had. and obviously the yield numbers that the usda is coming up with continues to prove that this crop is going to continue to grow. >> brian, when we look at last year, so now until the end of the year we have thanksgiving, you have christmas, you have these holidays coming up. could we see some type of gift like we saw last year? what's your advice now through the remainder of the year? >> sure, so last year we had a little bit of a different setup. the crop was starting to get smaller and demand was getting bigger-- where right now the crop is still getting
decreased, so most likely if we're going to see a rally that's worthwhile, it might be from a change of perception in the u.s. dollar. i think the general money flow right now has been negative, so if there's some profit taking into the end of the year on the dollar, that might be something that brings in some money flow. but it's just hard to get too excited about any major r ice rallies between now and the end of the year. >> it is. i mean, when we look at the markets-- all the markets-- it just seems like there's a bearish tone, not only inside when we look at the agricultural commodities, but all commodities. why is that, craig? >> well, you've seen the cash flows come out. you've seen funds not be quite as involved. we started to see the downturnrntowards the beginnnng of the year and really what ultimately set it off, i think, was the strength in the dollar. you look at the increase that we saw-- 20% jump at the beginning of this year-- and that continues to weigh in on commodities. whether or not some of the supply and demand shifts, the perception of the strong dollar is ultimately weighing in on the weakness we're seeing in the
u.s. commodity market. >> brian, do you agree with that? >> i do. you know, the market right now is in anticipation of a rate increase by the fed, and so i think until we get that official announcement that will give traders reason to continue to buy dips in the dollar. now, overall, the dollar and like craig said the commodity and the grain markets have been more in a sideways range for four months or so. the dollar has as well, and it's getting to the upper tier of that range, so if the dollar can't continue to push gher and we lose a little momentum, then maybe we can revisit the low end of the range there. but i think long term what i'm hoping is that we get the official announcement that the feds are raising rates and historically when we've seen a lorate environment start to transition to where we are seeing a rate increase, we do get the dollar to back off for generally maybe a simonth period of time. and whether it goes back up or down aer that might depend on the year, but maybe that provides a little bit of a bright spot of hope for the first and second quarter of 2016
if the dolladoes get a little bit of a softer tone and bring some money flolointo commodities again. >> all right. welel what happens if the fed does indeed raise rates in december? we'll get their take as well as talk abt this cattle market. we need to discuss that when we come back, so don't go anywhere. receive a fr trial of the daily market letter and gain knowledge about current market conditions from the professionals at bower trading. view the markets like never before. go to bowertrading.com. [ break ] welcome back. all right, craig, if the fed does raise rates in december-- which
think the dollar's going to maybe force the fed^s hands in a way. the problem is the fed raising rates is such a small amount at this point, will the perception rip the dollar lower, quite a bit lower, and will commodities take note? but with such a small increase in interest r re, you know, that tail might take some time for the dollar to actually find a level where it will become more competitive globally in exchange rates to ultimately give guys further boost, maybe in the middle o2016. maybe further out. we might be looking into the early 2017 because the fed raising rates is going to take time. and they've said it before, we're going to slowly raise it, so while the initial breakoff might support commodities in the near term if the dollar does take effect on that fed rate raise, but whether it be december, whether it be the beginning of next year, it's all up in the air. we've heard the guesses for the past year now when they're going to raise them, and we^ve yet to see anything done yet. >> well,
look at oil hitting fresh lows. what's going on, brian? >> well, this all just goes back to the general deflationary atmosphere that we're in right now, so in all commodities you're going to continue to see in a general sense rallies will be sold. until that perception of deflation changes, it's hard to think that anything in the ag sector's going to find a real, meaningful rally unless maybe we get some kind of a weather event to spark up in south america so that will take place, if it does, towards the beginning of 2016. you know, pay attention for somether events that is s usually see in februarmarch titi frame, which is going to be maybe some striking in brazil to get a little bit of rally, but for the most part when you look at where commodities are, i think natural gas is 85% off altime highs, crude oil, rbob, heating oil roughly 70%,grains
there's still some downside, but relative to equity is still close to all might be a relative value play at some point as well. >> speaking of bad... the catate mamaet saw some big losses this week, sosohat are all these bearish factors weighing on the market now, and is there anything bullish that could possibly push these prices higher in the near >> well, witut a doubt it's been a volatile market. you know, we've seen extreme volatility over the past week, two weeks-- actually the past couple months. dressed weights continue to be record heavy. we've seen a break in beef product. we have seen some movement picup as beef product starts to move lower, but it's all relative. what's high-- $1.40 cattle, $1.10 cattle? when we initially saw the stock market break, that's kind of wh this all began, so i think you're nit seeing the funds...
in '13 and '14. so producers have to be willing to be nimble here. you have to be willing to take advantage and bob and weave with this market because, as we move forward, while we have seen some decent retail demand and potentially moving into the fourth quarter we could be seeing one of the bigger year-over-year retail beef demands and pork demand that we've seen since about 2004. >> ay. >> so the dema is still there. as we've seen b bf demand is inelastic, but at the end of the day it's all relative. what's high? $1.50 cattle, $1.10 cattle, historically these are still high levels. >> brian, we real don't have much time, but this hog market, are we seeing seasonal lows right now? >> we typically should see some kind of a seasonal low. we definitely had a seasonal downturn here recently. it was a very aggressive downturn, maybe more than what we would have liked to have seen, but we should see a asonal low. last year the best we got was stability. we didn't
with you. >> i think the biggest thing that livesdock producers need to look at now is managing enuser risk, the input side as far as where grain prices are at. manage that upside, but as well as be willing to be nimble. this market is moving. there's a lot of opportunity to take mone market moves, like i said, and add value in a market that is trending lower. >> all right, thank you. brian? >> sure, i think my main message is for grain prododers, and when you look at the where the corn and soybean and wheat markets are, for that matter, we are at some very, very good support right now, and we'e'like to see that hold. but i think you have to
think about what it means to you if these levels are taken out and find a way to protect that. >> thank you both for being here this us with week. we really do apprecia it. please stay us with. john phipps joins us when we come back. u.s. farm report, brought to you by case ih, your cattle bringing in the profits. count on case ih equipment to help you do everything else.
activists regarding the humane treatment of animals. just this week, the u-s department of agriculture said its reviewing the authenticity of a video from a hormel foods hog supplier in austin minnesota. the video reportedly shows animals being beaten and hogs covered in feces at a slaughterhouse. but as john tellllus, improvements are being made across the country, and things could get even better thanks to technology. john. last week i had the privilege to speak to the elite producer business conference - the annual meeting hosted by my colleagues at dairy today. it is always learning experience for me as
dairy is an industry constantly moving forward scientifically as well as continuously updating their business strategies. i was deeply impressed by the efforts the entire industry, from producers to retailers, have undertaken to answer animal welfare concerns from consums. their concerns for profitability were genuine and strongly expressed, but i didn't witness a lot of time wasted ranting against irrational consumers or complalaing about unfair converage by the media. these people were realists. one thing they truly get is the power of video, and the experts i talked to were blunt in their assessment of so-called ag gag laws as a poor defensive ttic.
powerful answer to undercover videos is similar to what t w enforcement agencies are pondering: routine, constant self-surveillance. while the debate over body cams for police continues, many like me are reaching the conclusion that the only effective antidote to spy cameras iso make them redundant. if everything is recorded, transparency is no longer an issue. the breakthrough for this idea will be when software engineers can create programs to scan the gigabytes of video rapidly for questionable conduct. i'm guessing it may already exist in some form at higher security levels, and in t te this enormous data-crunching ability should be available for every level of production. this not only provides evidence for the defense, it strongly encourages correct actions in the first place. what we see is a powerful influencer of what we think. it seems to me the plan to counter video with video has a lot of merit. thanks, john. still to come,e,et coast producers were spared from avian flu outbreaks this fall. but that doesn't mean they aren't preparing for the
black tells us a tale of old blue. and a special tractor tribute put togeer by an avid viewer. now for the headlines, farmers are seeking more farm loans, but banks say it could be a credit crunch the remainder of the year. the kansas city federal reserve says farm income losses intensified during the third quarter of this year. the branch covering kansas, missouri nebraska and the mountain region, showing most of that can be tied to the big cuts in livestock prices. bankers in those areas show the largest downward shifts in years, with live c ctle prices dropping 17 percent and fefeer cattle 22 percent during the third quarter. bankers also say while farmers are seeking more farm loans, credit availability appears to be declining. this could create challenges for any producer looking for additional financining or debt restructuring towards the end of the year. to the east, the st.
farmland pces. the bank representing seven midwest and mid-south states shows farmland prices dropped 2 point 6 percent, but cash rents actually rebounded, up less than 1 percent. that's after rents fell last quarter. the bank also sa ranchland actually strenthenedednearly 5 percent c cpared to last year. the food and drug adminisration releasing new rules that put more "bite" into imported foods. the f-d-a set standards that require foreign produce farms and importers to verify their products meet u-s food safety standards. . the the rule sets science-based standards for growing, harvesting, packing and storing produce that are intended to be shipped to the u-s. the company that just received approval from usda for its avian flu vaccine is being bought out. ames based harrisvaccines is selling itself to merck and company. the deal is expected to close this year. harrisvaccines says they hope the acquisition will help the vaccine manufacturer expand its
cattle. harrisvaccines is also the maker of the p-e-d vaccine called i-p-e-d plus. heavy rains and mountain snow hit the pacific northwest this week, an area desperate for long-term drought relief. here's the national weather services's forcast, showing more than 7 inches of rain hitting the extreme northwest corner of washington. now, let's compare that to the latest drought monitor. all of washington is consumed by some level of drought, with nearly half the state seeing extreme conditions. as for the entire weut, drought improved slightly from last week, but more than half the region is still seeing moderate drought or worse. and in california, 45 percent of residents are under the most severe conditions possible. but according to usda meteorologist brad rippe el nino could help bring relief this year.
califonria now in early november, that's a good sign that now we're gettingnghose el nino driven storms beginning to affect the west coast."> rippey also thinks areas like the gulf coast and mississippi delta could see extreme flooding this winter. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with our longer r rge forecast. mike, brad thinks wetter winter conditions for the west and south. that's what we've been hearing. what else should we expect the next 90 days? thanks, tyne. i definitely agree with brad. it's a typical el nino pattern to see wetter cocoitions for southwest, southern plains and even on into the southeast and i would contineu to agree with that. the wamer than normal waters in the northeast pacific may cause some differences in temps than we typicacay get for a strong el nino so that's something we need to watch as we head into winter. jet stream though for this week you can se a troph coming in cutting off thatat going to be a wet system for the mimile of the country. by the weekend, then, it's already spreading east a quick shot of cold air coming in hind and that looks
interesting for the great lakes as we head for ladder r rt of the weekend with another troph coming in out west. definitely an active weather pattern. so for my 30 day outlook going above normal for minnesota to alabama and eastward. below normal for southwestern plains and most of the west, as you can see. precipitation over the next 30 days, there it is, above normal for most of the southern tier of the area. near normal for california andndevada. below normal up along the canadian border. tyne. delaware poultry producers aaron and johnathon thompson say as the seasons change, there's not much worry thompson say as the seasons change, there's not much worry
change anything because we've already had such great existing guidelines. when things happen, you're already prepared and know what to do if that was to come,">32 that's because their operation, locust-lane-hartley , located within the atlantic flyway -an area that's known as the grandddaddy of poultry operations. this is basically the birthplace of commercial operations so it's kind of one of the oldest areas. 45 their flyway was spared during the h5n2 avian influenza outbreak that started in 2015, killing over 50 million birds nationwide. but the area dealt with a similar outbreak back in 2004. i believe it's pure ck that it didn't go through last time. luck or nono the two believe their biosecurity is strong and if the virus were to hit, it shouldn't spread as fast as if did last spring. the two brothers have supplied for perdue farmers since e 09. in turn, they apapy perdue's bio security best practice standards to their
one includes dedicated footwear and vests. level two is similar but dedicated footwear per house. doors are locked and water is sanitized. disinfecting is heightened with level three. that includes cleaning up manure and spilld feed. if you're at a level three, and an area is in a level three, they don't even encourage you to go to other public places where other poultry producers would be. that's something they ask of you. luckily, we haven't been to level three. we've been to level two," the thompson's say the suppliers and feed truck drivers have their own set of rules they have to follow. what they're responsible for is the order they visit the farms in from youngest to oldest. from uninfected to infect or non-vaccinated to
vaccinated 45 > despite the security, there is a worry. there are a lot of man-made ponds, some even 100 feet away from the barns that are home to canadian geese. so we call them residents. if we g g some migratory geese coming in and infect the resident geese, then we don't know how long they could be here. 35 for now, they hope their security practices are strong enough to keep their flocks healthy and safe for another season. reporting for u.s. farm report, i'm betsy jibben thanks betsy. perdue encourages enclosed composting. the thompson's built an enclosed composting building with walls and gates to keep wild birds out. when we come back, john phipps.
strength of the u-s dollar and how it's weighing on v-s exports. but what's the dollar really worth? that's this week's customer support with john phipps. don kelly has a simple, butricky question: "uld you please address the value of the dollar and how it affects us as farmers? also it would be helpful if the value of the dollar could be included in the financial report that appears at the bottom of the screen, so that i can keep track of it.""don, email your address - you've earned a mug. our analysists do talk about the value of the dollar, , t when you get righthtdown to it, measurininthat value is not as easy as it seems. the biggest reason is the dollar is what we use to measure the value of everything else. in fact, it
the strength of the dollar for instance the unsaid portion of that phrase is "compared to something". the most widely used measure of the value of the dollar is e dollar index, often abbreviated as usdx, which is traded on the intercontinental exchange in new york. it is calculated from a weighted basket of currencies as follows: euro - 57.6%; japanese yen - 13.6%; british pound - 11.9%; canadian dollar - 9.1%; swish krona - 4.2%; and the swiss frank - 3.6%. those
1973 when the index began. here is a chart of the index since then. i have two problems with it, however. first, the composition of the index doesn't come close to our trading picture now. one big omission is the chinese yuan, for r ample. china is abobo to become our biggest trading partner. to compare, here are our biggest trading parners now. that said, the index does follow other measures like the bloomberg dollar index pretty closely. the second problem is more subtle. the index was anchored at 100 on the day it began. while this is logical, there is a psychological message carried with the index as we tend to compare it to 100. it just feels better if itits over 100, for exexple. perhaps the best way is
baxter black who has a tale about old blue. a retirereohio farmer told me this story. its about the best coon dog he'd ever seen. it was an old blue tick hound that his fathererad trained. he said he's dad was such an excellent trainer he didn't even have to go hunting withlue, the dog would go by himself. dad would put a high board out on the back porch, a large or a jumbo. and just
the size of the hide board and the next morning there would be a coon to fit lyin on the porch. blue was so well trained and so smart he would chase racoon around t woods until he spotted a tree that was leaning just enough that he would climb up it and take of the coon. sometimes more than one. then he'd whip out his little more maker knife that he carried on his collar and skin em out. and he'd carry him home in his mouth. the only thing he couldnt do was sharpen his skinning knife. you see, he couldn't hold the knife with his paws because his toenails were so worn donw from running that when he held the knife in his mouth his ears flopped down adn he couldnt see. blue was so proficient with his knife, he would hold it in his
reach up with one toenail and open that little more maker knife and skin the coon right quick annot have a nick in the hide. one time dad sent away andndgot blue a male ororr course on ventrilliquist. he got so good at throwing his voice that the game warden from three counties ran themselves ragged trying to cacth old blue hunting out o o season. but alas they lost old blue due to an unfortunate circumstance. mom always did her ironing out on the back porch. one dadadad came home with a a brand new ironing board, well they kissed and hugged and caught up and then went in the house completelyorgetting about the ironing board left out on the porch. it was left out all night. they never saw old blue again. this is baxter black from out there. when we come back, al pell is here with a
which was modern back then. i also bought a 3 bottom plow that i used on it. the neighbors borrowing it to fill their silo. it was the only tractor they could use that would blow the silage clele over the top. and not plug it up or stop it. i had it restored a few years ago wanted it restored, he wanted the corn p pker so i traded the corn picker for restoring the tractor. it was a good deal because it needed really cleaning and sanding and new paint and it was all stripped down and repainted and brought back here with the decals on it.
good as the day we bought it. i was surprised because it hadn't been run for several years, i just let it set in the barn. got it back from restoration and i drove it when they delivered it back home and i drove it on the farm and it was just like it was brand new. it just that feeling there, and it was new, it was new. because it was completely redone. it was a surprise and a great feeling to have this tractor back, be able to sit on
creating big ruts in the fields. jarret says even though the calendar says mid-novermber, there is still a lot of corn and sorghum left in the field to harvest, with portions of the crop suffering from hail damage this fall. and illinois corn yields may have been a rollercoaster this year, but the popcorn looks pretty good. scott trimble tells us they had a record p pcorn crop in heywortrt illinois and the q qlity was off the charts. after harveses they put the crop in mini cribs made of pallets. and then the real work begins--their entire winter will consist of shelling, drying and bagging the popcorn. and prprceton, minnesota fararr eric minks tells us he finally found what' he's been looking for-- his last row. that's in response to john's touching commentary from a couple weeks ago about
obviously i'm about due. it's pretty obvious. it's getting there. thanksgiving is hte official due de. so while i'm gone, actually clinton griffiths will be filling in forore. so be prepared. so clinton will be standing here for six weeks or so or whatever it takeke yes, so if you could give him a hardrd time i would appreciate that for all six weeks. (laughter). okay sounds good. for john, al and mike, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here agajn next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone.